Live Poster Session: Zoom Link
Brendan Barry
Brendan is an undergraduate student at Wesleyan University pursuing a double major in History and Government. He holds leadership positions in the Wesleyan Democrats and Wesleyan American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and has centered his data analysis priorities around electoral voting outcomes in presidential elections.
Abstract: For decades, unemployment among working class voters has been strongly related with an increased propensity to vote for Democratic presidential candidates who are traditionally viewed as better suited to ameliorating their economic conditions. Donald Trump’s electoral outcomes have significantly altered political science’s understanding of unemployment’s electoral relationships, as unemployed working-class White voters have shown far greater levels of support for Trump than has been historically seen for other Republican presidential candidates. This study is dedicated to expanding the understanding of unemployment’s relationship with voting outcomes in elections where Trump is on the ballot, analyzing its impact among commonly studied unemployed White working-class voters, and their counterparts among other racial groups. Through analysis of a sample from the ANES 2020 Time Series Study which includes unemployed working-class respondents and their voting outcomes, the data suggests that the increased propensity for unemployed White working-class voters to vote for Trump is not shared by unemployed working-class voters of other racial groups. Among these non-White respondents, the traditional high propensity for unemployed working class voters to select democratic candidates holds true, revealing that Trump has not significantly changed the voting propensities of non-White unemployed working class voters as he has for White voters. In furthering the understanding of voting outcomes among understudied racial groups of economically distressed American voters, it is hoped that this study will encourage policymakers to prioritize their issues in electoral politics.
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